Weather observer Electroverse is forecasting a “severe blast” of Arctic air to encompass parts of the US Lower-48 beginning late next week.
Cap Allon, Electroverse’s editor, wrote a note Tuesday which outlines how a possible Arctic air mass will pour into the U.S. from Canada beginning on Nov. 18.
Allon said, “a word of caution, though: this forecast is still in the unreliable time frame — the models could easily shift. But saying that, the GFS predicting such a widespread blast of cold and with such confidence, too, does lead me to believe that this, or something similar, is indeed about to play out — and if it does, cold-records will be threatened across almost every state.”
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].
GFS models also predict heavy snow for some parts of the country through Thanksgiving.
GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 9 – Nov 25 [tropicaltidbits.com].
Colder weather could complicate things for some power plants transitioning to coal from natural gas because of high prices. The ability to source coal this winter has become extremely hard.
Last month, Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources, the largest U.S. exporter of fuel, said demand for coal will remain robust well into 2022. He warned about domestic supply constraints and power companies already “discussing possible grid blackouts this winter.”
A pure-play on cold weather and heightened coal demand is Peabody Energy, the largest coal company globally, which has seen earnings triple amid the global energy crunch.
So if forecasts are right about next week, expect colder weather and soaring energy costs. In the meantime, the green transition will be placed on hold this fall/winter (in terms of the percentage of power generation on the grid) as the world returns to coal.