There are currently more job openings than there are unemployed people. We don’t need to reference economic data just look around you the help wanted signs are everywhere. Hiring parties, sign on bonuses, one billboard advertised $7,000 sign on bonus for Corrections Officer. But the problem is totally across the board, it’s not in low paying jobs or in certain sectors – it’s on Wall St. it’s on Main St. everywhere. Blackrock bumps pay by 8%. It can be a number of factors, planet changes, COVID, or the elephant in the room which is the Fed. The Fed created 85% of all money in existence in the last 18 months. Think about that for a moment. So this affects the economy in a number of ways, the most obvious of which are ‘markets up’ – but that also has created a labor shortage, not only because of stimulus but that is definitely a big factor. People making money trading Bitcoin don’t feel like going to work at Starbucks in the morning. That’s a tangible example there are hundreds of others. How about the employees that have taken early retirement, such as Police officers fearing the backlash of the “Black Lives Matter” movement. Those officers need to be replaced, and hence the job openings with no one to fill. What about people not working to avoid Vax mandates? There are many reasons however the trend is clear, we have a major labor shortage in USA.
What this means is that at least according to this key measure, the US jobs market has not only shown “substantial further progress” but has now fully renormalized.
And checkout these charts and commentary from the illustrious Tyler:
There was an absolute shocker in today’s JOLTs report.
While consensus was expecting the BLS to report a print of 9.270MM in June job openings, which would be a new all time high and a modest increase from Mayh’s 9.209MM, nobody – not even the most optimistic whispers – was prepared for the shocking 10.073 million job openings that hit the tape at 10am ET sharp. This unprecedented number of job openings was made possible as more than 3.3 million openings were added in the past 6 months, with every single month of 2021 seeing an increase in job openings, the longest such stretch in history.
Looking at the details, the increase in job openings was driven by a number of industries with the largest increases in professional and business services (+227,000); retail trade (+133,000); and accommodation and food services (+121,000).
The record number of job openings stands out in stark contrast against the countless Americans who are still collecting various pandemic emergency unemployment claims, which in the latest week was just above 11 million.
But the biggest shocker is that while we were expecting the BLS to report that there were some 500K more job openings than unemployed workers, a testament to just how broken, supply constrained and/or overheating the US job market is, the actual number meant that there were 1.371 million more job openings (10.073MM) compared to the total number of unemployed people which as of July was 8.702 million.
Obviously, with (way) more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in June there were less than 1 unemployed workers (0.9415 to be exact) for every job opening, down from 1.01 in May, and from a record 4.6 at the peak crisis moment last April.
Are people lazy, or they are happier to sit at home on welfare checks? Or perhaps they are afraid to work because of COVID, or Vax mandates, or other factors.
Something clearly has changed in the jobs market.
The statistics show that the workforce is changing – the participants need to change with it.